Ethereum Could Drop to $1200 by December before Rallying, Says Analyst | Coinspeaker

Ethereum Could Drop to $1200 by December before Rallying, Says Analyst

Benjamin Njiri By Benjamin Njiri Julia Sakovich Edited by Julia Sakovich Updated 3 min read
Ethereum Could Drop to $1200 by December before Rallying, Says Analyst
Photo: Depositphotos

Benjamin Cowen foresaw ETH price dropping to $1200 as the 2024 pattern mirrored 2019 trend.

Key Notes

  • ETH price recovered 2% this week, contrary to last week's over 5% loss.
  • Per Cowen, ETH could see more Q4 losses and a likely drop to $1200 by December.
  • Short-term market sentiment was predominantly bearish at press time.

Ethereum ETH $2 451 24h volatility: 1.1% Market cap: $294.48 B Vol. 24h: $13.19 B , the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, saw a relief rally early this week, up 2% and traded at $2.3k at press time. This was contrary to last week’s 5% losses that pushed the altcoin to a low of $2.1k. Despite the slight rebound, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen projected a likely plunge below $1500, citing a similar 2019 pattern.

“In 2019, ETH fell back into its wedge right before the 1st rate cut, just like 2024. After the first rate cut in 2019, ETH fell below its wedge, and then ETH/BTC finally bottomed,” noted Cowen.

Ethereum Could Drop to $1200 by December before Rallying, Says Analyst

Photo: Benjamin Cowen / X

The markets expect the first Fed rate cut during next week’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. In 2019, ETH slipped below the wedge pattern after the first rate cut, triggering an ETH/BTC bottom. For context, the ETH/BTC ratio tracks ETH’s value relative to BTC BTC $62 098 24h volatility: 0.7% Market cap: $1.23 T Vol. 24h: $26.09 B and recently hit a yearly low of 0.40.

According to Cowen, if the 2019 pattern plays out, ETH/BTC could bottom out when ETH hits $1200 by December 2024 before picking up momentum in H1 2025. Currently, the ETHBTC ratio has struggled to hold at the range-low of its two-year-long channel.

Ethereum Could Drop to $1200 by December before Rallying, Says Analyst

ETH/BTC ratio. Photo: TradingView

Quinn Thompson of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital recently echoed the same sentiment. He argued that the ETH/BTC ratio could drop to 0.033 by the end of the year before reversing, claiming that ETH was overvalued at current prices. Based on the current BTC’s $56K value, that would translate to $1800 for ETH.

ETH Demand Woes

Part of the ETH price underperformance relative to BTC has been linked to the lackluster results from US spot ETFs. Since the products began trading in July, they have recorded cumulative outflows of $574 million per Farside Investors data. In fact, the products recorded zero flows during some trading days in the past two weeks.

On the contrary, US spot BTC ETFs netted $16.9 billion in total inflows since their debut and performed even better during the first two months.

Ethereum Could Drop to $1200 by December before Rallying, Says Analyst

Photo: CryptoQuant

However, bearish sentiment remained dominant among ETH speculators despite this week’s relief rally. According to the negative reading (red position) on the Taker Buyer Sell Ratio metric, sell volumes outpaced buy volumes. This illustrated that bearish sentiment prevailed in the derivatives market.

Ethereum Could Drop to $1200 by December before Rallying, Says Analyst

Photo: TradingView

So, in the short term, the key supply levels to watch out for were the 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of $2.3K, $2.4K, and $2.5K.

Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.

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Benjamin Njiri

Benjamin is a Telecommunication Engineering graduate who is passionate about crypto-markets and unraveling market trends. Armed with data, charts and patterns, he's interested in making the intricate, complex landscape of digital assets easier for every user.

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