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According to Du Jun’s projection, and because of the Bitcoin halving, the next bull run will not happen until the end of 2024 or early 2025.
According to Du Jun, co-founder of crypto exchange Huobi, the next Bitcoin (BTC) bull run may not occur until late 2024 or early 2025. Speaking at a media session, Jun based his hypothesis on the prominent digital currency’s thread of past price cycles. As the Huobi co-founder further explained, BTC bull markets are closely linked to Bitcoin’s halving, which happens every few years:
“If this circle continues, we are now at the early stage of a bear market. It is really hard to predict exactly because there are so many other factors which can affect the market as well — such as geopolitical issues including war, or recent Covid, also affect the market. Following this cycle, it won’t be until end of 2024 to beginning of 2025 that we can welcome next bull market on bitcoin.”
What Is Halving?
Roughly occurring every four years, a halving is a part of Bitcoin’s underlying code. The key technical event cuts the reward that miners receive for validating transactions on the BTC network in half. Generally, miners on the BTC network run powerful specialized computers capable of solving complex mathematical puzzles. Miners do this in order to validate transactions on the BTC network and receive Bitcoin for their work.
The last halving took place in May 2020, when the reward was 12.5 tokens per block. As a result of the halving event, this number was cut down to 6.25 BTC. It is also worth noting that all these preceded the following year when BTC hit a record high that exceeded $68K. Previous BTC halvings also occurred in 2012, and 2016, after which the price of the leading crypto rallied the very next year, only to tumble significantly again.
Soon after the phenomenon, the price of BTC shrank substantially. As it stands, the leading digital currency has regained some of its January lows, although it is approximately 40% off its record high from November. Currently, BTC is struggling to stay above the $40K price level.
Crypto Winter Seems to Be More Immediate, as Opposed to the Next Bitcoin Bull Run
BTC’s 2022 price slump has raised a few eyebrows among market participants and observers. These players fear that a “crypto winter” – a sustained period of bearishness – may be imminent. The most recent one took place in late 2017 and early 2018 when BTC crashed by 80% from record highs.
David Marcus, an expert on digital currencies, and former head of crypto at Facebook’s parent Meta touched on the crypto winter phenomenon. According to him, the bearish period always presents an opportunity for competent entrepreneurs to build better companies. Marcus further stressed that during the crypto winter, the main focus should be on “solving real problems vs. pumping tokens.”