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Reports suggest that nearly 42% of global investment funds predict a stock market downturn in 2020 and 59% think that the global financial crisis will hit in the next 5 years.
The traditional stock market has performed against the predictions of some of the world’s top investment funds. During the start of 2019, financial institutions predicted that stock markets will see a major downturn. However, to their surprise, the Dow Jones surged 18% year-to-date nearing its all-time high.
Similarly, the S&P 500 has given over 24% returns so far this year. With this performance, 2019 is likely to turn out as the second-best performing year in a decade, in terms of annual returns. The data from NATIXIS shows that markets have trumped nearly 41% of the institutions predicting a downturn. Based out of France, the Natixis Investment Managers have pulled this data collected from the world’s top-500 largest investment firms having over $15 trillion assets under management (AUM).
Despite this performance in the traditional markets, uncertainty has been on the rise in the global markets. The long-going U.S.-China trade war and uncertainty about Brexit is making global markets jittery. While the stock market certainly outperformed in 2019, the outlook for 2020 looks bleak.
This year nearly 41% of investment funds predicted a downturn and the number has increased for 2020. Nearly 48% of the investment funds think that 2020 will be challenging for the global market and we can see a downturn ahead.
2020 Global Economy Outlook
Some of the industry experts believe that there will be a surge in trade disputes by the next year. Dave Goodsell from NATIXIS writes:
“Almost three-quarters (73%) project trade will have a negative impact on performance. And with developed markets delivering less than 2% growth, and emerging markets dropping to 4% or less, 67% of institutional investors also believe slow growth will have a negative impact on investment performance”.
The institutional investors have adopted the strategy of “Let’s Wait and See” and nearly six in ten institutions think that low yield will major affect the investment environment in 2020. If we consider a long-term spectrum, nearly 83% of institutions predict a global financial crisis in the next five years.
As per the BofAML survey, nearly 28% of fund managers predict a major market reversal in the next year. However, 59% still think that the recession won’t be coming in the next 12 months. Holger Zschaepitz, a market analyst at Welt, said that the fears of recession have already dampened the investment sentiment.
Recession concerns continue to temper investor risk appetite as 38% of Fund Managers in latest BofAML survey expect a recession over the next 12mths vs 59% who see a recession as unlikely, the highest net recession risk since Aug'09. pic.twitter.com/bK1vkLabRz
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 17, 2019
The ongoing talks between U.S. & China have made fund managers believe that the trade deal will be signed in the near term. However, they still remain skeptical of whether it will be a partial deal or a thorough one.