By
Steve Muchoki
April 19th, 2024
Some analysts also believe that the selling pressure from adverse macro factors will end Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook.
Market analysts and investors continue to differ on what the direction of Bitcoin (BTC) price will be after the setback experienced since the turn of the year. While some believe that indicators are suggesting a bullish trend going forward, others think that the bearish trend is set to continue.
A Bullish Outlook
With data from TradingView showing a strong performance of the BTC/USD out of hours, some analysts believe that BTC is set for a bullish run. Investor Bob Loukas noted that the fact that the pair closed multiple times above the 10-day moving average (MA) is a good sign.
Again, looking at on-chain data, analyst Matthew Hyland suggested that the Relative Strength Indicators (RSI) charts also suggest a bullish trend is incoming. The RSI uses the magnitude of recent price changes to determine overbought or oversold conditions. This momentum indicator will then be used to estimate how likely it is for the trend to be sustained.
Most recently, RSI oversold at levels comparable to that of the Coronavirus crash in March 2020. Thus, the indications suggest that BTC may be ready to challenge the bearish market in place since November. Despite these suggestions, it remains unlikely that the coin will close at a resistance of $39,600 resistance at the time of writing.
Why Bitcoin Price Could Go Bearish
Some analysts also believe that the selling pressure from adverse macro factors will end Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook.
The cryptocurrency’s monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram went below zero. This is indicative of a bullish-to-bearish trend change when you look at the long-term price chart.
Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies noted:
“There is an unconfirmed monthly MACD sell signal that would support a long-term bearish bias if confirmed alongside a breakdown [of support at $37,400].”
If the MACD remains negative throughout Monday, the sell signal will be confirmed and the price of Bitcoin will be expected to crash to new levels. The last time the MACD gave a sell signal in 2018, the price of Bitcoin crashed from nearly $20,000 to $3500
Again, macro factors seem to also suggest a bearish outlook for the cryptocurrency. With many nations and regulatory bodies tightening their financial policies, Bitcoin is on track for a third straight month of loss. Since the beginning of the year alone, Bitcoin has lost more than 20% of its value. At the time of writing, the coin was trading at $37,225 according to CoinMarketCap.