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The flipping of the odds favoring President Trump to win is due in part to his clinching the victory is some of the key swing states.
The betting or predictions markets are currently in favor of the incumbent candidate President Donald Trump over Democratic candidate Joe Biden as the results of the U.S. presidential elections rolls in. Per a Reuters report, betting markets including UK-based Smarkets exchange, Betfair, and PredictIt have all revised the odds for both candidates to win the keenly contested election and mostly in favor of President Trump.
From 39% when the polls commenced, Smarkets exchange has now reviewed Trump’s chances of clinching the victory for another four years in office to 55%. Per the report, the odd rose to almost 80% before settling at 55%. The Smarkets exchange move also downgraded Joe Biden’s odds to 45% from the previous 61%.
Betfair also flipped the odds on President Trump from 39% to 75%, a wider gap than even what is currently on display at Smarkets. Conversely, the odds for Joe Biden on Betfair have tilted from 61% to 25%. Also, PredictIt has Trump ahead of Biden by 62 cents to 37 as against the earlier 61 cents to 44 cents.
Prediction market analysts are weighing in on the changes in the chances of winning. Patrick Flynn of Smarkets noted that the changes “has mainly been driven by Trump seemingly holding the key swing state of Florida as a result of a very strong showing for him in the Miami-Dade county with a large Cuban population,” adding that the overall outcome and the potential winner of the 2020 elections will be determined by the yet to be counted votes in the key swing states including Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan amongst others.
Why the Betting Markets Flipped Their Odds in Trump’s Favor
The flipping of the odds favoring President Trump to win is due in part to his clinching the victory is some of the key swing states (that is, states that could be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate by a swing in votes.)
The odds of either of the two major candidates to win the election is dependent on the total amount of electoral college points accumulated as determined by the collation of the points from each state won. Currently, the tally to hit is 270 and while President Trump has amassed 213 according to a Reuters’ elections live update, Biden is ahead with Trump.
According to Globalnews.ca, there are few swing states to watch out for as the results roll in and they include North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Ohio, as well as Texas, Minnesota, Georgia, Iowa, and Nevada.
From the results thus far, President Trump has clinched victory in Texas with 38 electoral college votes, Florida with 29 electoral votes, in Ohio and He is leading in North Carolina with about 95% of the expected votes counted while he is projected to win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia.
These figures and vote performance might have informed the odd flipping decision of the betting markets in favor of Donald Trump.