By
Chimamanda U. Martha
April 26th, 2024
As we are just 3-4 weeks away from Bitcoin halving, BTC price has reportedly entered a danger zone where investors need to be cautious of the upcoming volatility.
Leading cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase weighs in on the impending fourth Bitcoin halving 2024, which is 33 days away from now. The exchange has cautioned against definitive conclusions from previous halving cycles. Coinbase underscores the need for careful interpretation of historical patterns amidst the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency markets and the growing clout of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The crypto exchange explains the significant impact of US spot Bitcoin ETFs on reshaping Bitcoin’s market dynamics, establishing a new anchor for demand. This development marks a departure from previous cycles, stating that the current cycle is unique in its characteristics and implications.
Coinbase expresses confidence in the ongoing price trajectory. The exchange views the current price movement as merely the initial phase of a more prolonged bull run. According to the exchange, further Bitcoin price appreciation will be necessary to achieve equilibrium in supply-demand dynamics.
The Bitcoin price rallied to its all-time high last week above $73,000, however, has experienced some volatility amid global macro developments. During the last weekend, the BTC price took a dive under $65,000 but quickly recovered to $68,000 at press time.
The approaching halving event on the BTC network presents miners with both challenges and opportunities. Although the halving event reduces block rewards, potential factors such as the rise in Bitcoin’s price and increased transaction fees may help offset revenue losses.
Caution Before Bitcoin Halving 2024?
The Bitcoin price has given a massive run-up already ahead of the upcoming Bitcoin halving next month. After a massive 50% and more rally so far in 2024, analysts have advised caution to investors building fresh positions.
Bitcoin is reportedly on the verge of entering what analysts dub as the “Danger Zone”, mere days away from its halving event. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted this phenomenon in a recent post on March 17.
In 2 days, Bitcoin will officially enter the "Danger Zone" (orange) where historical Pre-Halving Retraces have begun
Historically, Bitcoin has performed Pre-Halving Retraces 14-28 days before the Halving
In 2020, this retrace was -20% deep
In 2016, this retrace was -40%… pic.twitter.com/rnKjznsGHk
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 17, 2024
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced price retracements in the 14 to 28 days leading up to its halving, according to Rekt Capital. In 2016, the cryptocurrency dipped by 40% during this period, followed by a 20% decline in 2020.
Earlier in January, Rekt Capital forecasted a “pre-halving rally” approximately 60 days before the halving, followed by a subsequent “pre-halving retrace” one to three weeks before the event. This prediction proved accurate as Bitcoin surged in mid-February, surpassing its previous all-time high from the previous cycle of $68,990.
On the other hand, some market veterans continue to remain bullish about Bitcoin. During an event in Bangkok on March 17, Binance CEO Richard Teng expressed his bullish outlook on Bitcoin. Teng anticipates that the cryptocurrency will soar beyond $80,000 by the year’s end, as reported by Bloomberg.
He further emphasized that Bitcoin’s journey is only beginning, attributing its upward trajectory to the significant investments by institutional players, particularly through the newly launched Bitcoin ETFs in the US. These ETFs currently manage a staggering $57 billion, according to data from Dune Analytics.
While expressing confidence in Bitcoin’s potential to surpass $80,000, Teng cautioned that the path won’t be without its ups and downs. He noted that despite supply constraints and sustained demand, price fluctuations are inevitable along the way.
