By
Bena Ilyas
May 15th, 2024
The trading of spot Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong, which begins tomorrow, will further strengthen the long-term bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC) price opened the last week of April, the halving month, on a bearish note after closing the last four weeks in a correction mode. The flagship coin is on the cusp of closing the first month since August 2023 on a bearish note. With less than 48 hours left to May 2024, Bitcoin price is more likely to continue in a choppy trend.
Furthermore, more crypto traders have been taking a sideline ahead of high-impact news from the United States.
On Wednesday, the United States Federal Reserve will release much-awaited data on interest rates and the FOMC statement.
The cryptocurrency industry is expected to record increased volatility as the market absorbs US inflation data ahead. Moreover, it is not yet clear when the Federal Reserve will conduct its anticipated rate cuts later this year.
Is the Bitcoin Cycle Top Already Achieved?
After reaching its all-time high (ATH) of around $74k last month, Bitcoin price has been trapped in a correction mode to date. According to veteran trader Peter Brandt, Bitcoin price has been rallying upward through an exponential decay, based on diminishing returns.
Having analyzed historical data, Brandt argued that the exponential decay suggests the flagship coin has already reached its cycle top of slightly above $70,000.
Nonetheless, Brandt indicated that the exponential decay only has a 25 percent chance of being successful. Furthermore, Bitcoin price is impacted by a wide range of other factors including ongoing mainstream adoption of digital assets and web3 protocols.
As Coinspeaker previously mentioned, the Hong Kong-based spot Bitcoin ETFs will begin trading on April 30. The entrance of spot Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong will add to the existing buying pressure from the US-based fund managers.
As a result, Brandt noted that he believes Bitcoin price has a high chance of rallying beyond $100k in the coming months.
A similar stance was issued by Giovanni Santostasi, a popular Bitcoin trader and investor with a Ph.D in Astrophysics. According to Giovanni, Bitcoin price will rally as much as $210k by the end of 2025 and subsequently drop as low as $83k. Notably, Giovanni’s prediction entailed several scientific methods using the past few bull cycles after every Bitcoin halving.
Note that I assigned a 25% probability to my analysis. I give more credence to a report I issued in February. Here is a chart from that analysis — projecting a bull market until Sep/Oct 2025 https://t.co/hiSogUtEkt pic.twitter.com/Y5I8g5JWwa
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 29, 2024
What Next
As Bitcoin price continues to grind down, one week after the fourth halving, short-term investors have been diversifying into the altcoin industry. The ETH/BTC pair, which is a popular indicator of the macro crypto cash ration, has signaled an altseason ahead. Furthermore, the pair rebounded over 4 percent in the past week to hover around 0.0507 on Monday.
As I said 10 days ago:
"I would expect it (#ETH / #BTC) to be rejected by the bull market support band, at least when looking at weekly closes (0.053-0.054)."
This latest pump just looks like the last pump it got before rate cuts last cycle, just before summer capitulation. https://t.co/g8ZfQqSYzm pic.twitter.com/BiFe2GKdEP
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) April 28, 2024
Meanwhile, popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has urged investors to remain vigilant of a possible crash for altcoins in the coming months before the imminent rebound.