Jeff Fawkes is a seasoned investment professional and a crypto analyst. He has a dual degree in Business Administration and Creative Writing and is passionate when it comes to how technology impacts our society.
Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s chief analyst, thinks Bitcoin (BTC) price will reach 40,000 before the Dow Jones reach 40,000. Bitcoin halving is just 89 days away and the world is in crisis – how will this influence the price?
Famous trader Tom Lee makes yet another huge prediction regarding the Bitcoin price. This time, he claims that Bitcoin will reach 40,000 even before the Dow index does. Dow currently trades at 29,280. He thinks that, till August 2020, Bitcoin will cost at least 20,000, and then it will double the price. August 2020 is three months away from the halving of the block reward. Looks like Tom based his research on calculations taking 3 months periods as a unit to measure.
During a talk with CNBC’s Power Lunch host Kelly Evans, Tom said to the guests that he believes that Bitcoin can not reach 30,000 faster than Dow. However, it can beat the Dow on a road to 40,000. And that’s not a big problem considering the political situation around the world and the multitude of troubles in China.
— Power Lunch (@PowerLunch) February 10, 2020
At the same time, Peter Brandt says that people who wait for $6,000 ‘have missed the bottom’. Tone Vays warns the public that, if they see Bitcoin reaches $4,000, that is going to be the last possibility to buy the dip. The analyst PlanB creates highly accurate price predictions, and he claims Bitcoin will rely on $8,200. Then, at some point, it will make an unexpected breakthrough to $100,000 by the end of 2021.
How Do You Measure Days Till Bitcoin Halving?
Interesting thing here. We keep writing about the way to easily calculate the days till official halving. If you want to keep in touch with the network, use two main websites with five measurement scenarios. The first site shows the average expected time until the halving. Every 210,000 blocks the reward lose 50% of its initial state. Some may remember the times when miners got 50 or 25 Bitcoins ber the block. Since May 2020, the miners will only receive 6,25 BTC per the block.
The second site is Bravenewcoin. It provides four more possible specs for the halving measurement. They have calculations based on the Average Daily Block Time, for instance. It is not fixed to 10 minutes as some outlets say. Sometimes, miners find the block in two minutes, and sometimes they waste 45 minutes to do it. No matter what, the average block time is ten minutes, but it repeats the same time glitch thanks to miners. They periodically test new mining chips or joining the market with powerful ASIC farms. Such activity impacts the network average mining difficulty via the hash rate increase or fall.
So, according to the average block time, the halving will occur in 107 days, on May 28, 2020. Such a bizarre prediction may be true, and they measure it from the network stats taken one day ago. Next, they have a second countdown.
It is based on Cumulative Average Block Time. It says that the halving occurs on May 08, 2020, in 87 days since today. The measurement takes the average from all the blocks mined till the present day. The average period between blocks per the study is 600 seconds. The calculation is multiplying that average time with the number of blocks that miners will discover until May.
The third scenario measures the date as May 10, 2020. It uses Simple Moving Average Block Time taken from the last 50 days. This is a liquid tool that takes into consideration the periods when the network generates blocks faster. The faster the block producing goes, the faster the Halving arrives. They are using 7-day, 50-day and 200-day simple average metrics in the analysis.
The last method is using the Exponential Moving Average taken over the last 200 days. Here, all the attention goes to the recently mined blocks. Analysts use this data to compare it to other metrics such as historical average block time. This method is more reactive than the others to the latest changes in block time. It usually pays less attention to the older data sets, and it says there are 89 days left until the next halving. Some experts already compare Bitcoin to gold, claiming it’s the ‘digital version’ of it.