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Many commentators predicted a downside Bitcoin move and they seem to have been correct all along as BTC price lost 5% in an hour. The drop moved BTC nearer to the 20 moving average as volume continues to taper off.
The past few days have seen the price of Bitcoin hovering above the 20 Moving Average (MA). Following an entire week of consolidation in a tight channel, the price of Bitcoin finally made a move on September 18. Many commentators predicted a downside move and they seem to have been correct all along as BTC lost 5% in an hour.
The latest drop has made the crypto to plunge below the psychological $10,000 level to settle in the mid-$9,000 zone. The drop made the token to draw nearer to the 20 moving average as volume continues to taper off with lower highs getting set each day.
BTC Price Movement
The digital asset started to appear bearish on multiple charts and the downside movement became imminent. After the 12 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) plunged below the 26-EMA on September 16, aggressive intraday traders correctly forecasted a double bottom bounce at $10,075.
The price got a beating for the third time on September 18 with the continuous formation of lower highs. A bearish breakdown became notable. Many traders panicked since Bitcoin is fast approaching the endpoint of the descending wedge. Most traders expect volatility with the hopes that the biggest crypto will recover and explode upwards. An upside move is probable in the medium-term.
The most recent plunge took Bitcoin to the 111 Day Moving Average (DMA). That is a point that has majorly acted as the bouncing point since April 2. Currently, the 111 DMA is stationed at the $9,600 support. Any drop below this point might take BTC price nearer to exiting the bottom of the descending wedge at around $9,385.
That area has also successfully functioned as a support and bounce point for BTC since July 16. The pullback that goes to the 111 DMA also lines up with the lower v Bollinger Band arm. Notably, the VPVR shows reduced demand below $9,500 until about $8,800. A plunge past $9,300 will cause some havoc since there is reduced purchasing demand existing until below $8,600.
Macro Investing Is Good for Bitcoin
Philip Swift, Bitcoin Golden Ratio, recently advised traders to focus on Bitcoin’s historical volatility. It is dropping precipitously at the moment:
It's very possible that $BTC just goes sideways for a while now.
If that scenario plays out, then it is worth keeping an eye on Historical Volatility – currently dropping quickly.
It would present a lovely long position trade opportunity when it drops down to the green box. 😋 pic.twitter.com/Z1g7XLtAIE
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) September 9, 2019
He believes that the indicator has a lag in reflecting BTC’s spot action subject to the API updates of the exchanges where it draws data. It is unlikely that BTC will plunge to the 350 DMA at $6,562 but if crucial supports fail to hold, Bitcoin may trade sideways in a prolonged accumulation phase into the 2020 halving event.
But, analysts think that a drop to $9,350 or below offers a good opportunity to enter a low-leverage long position.
The Weekly Chart Is Not Yet Bearish
Crypto analyst Filb Filb checked the weekly Bitcoin timeframe and reassured investors that everything is alright from a macro perspective:
Weekly $btc Chart removes alot of the noise.
Prepared for the worst but this doesnt scream descending triangle top into 50% selloffs to me.
Also, VPVR gap at 6k was below – this time it is above.
Just worth bearing in mind.
Want to see Bulls re-claim $10.5k this week. pic.twitter.com/as0VLZ2ZTc
— fil₿fil₿ (@filbfilb) September 17, 2019
The weekly chart shows BTC continuing to move away from a rising 20-WMA. The $10,370 weekly high still touches the upper arm of the descending wedge. However, the succession of weekly lower highs attracts attention. As Bitcoin moves near the wedge termination point, the price will tighten with occasional volume spikes.
The Relative Strenght Index (RSI) is falling toward 37, a level that has thrice been followed by explosive surges on January 28, February 7, and August 28. In a worst-case scenario, Bitcoin will fall to $9,300, touch the base of the triangle on the weekly RSI and then rise back to $10,000.
Buyers in the past have stepped in to buy the dip at around $9,600. Thus, a dip towards $9,350 may inspire even stronger purchasing demand.