By
Bena Ilyas
May 16th, 2024
Bitcoin’s immediate success hinges on major macroeconomic events scheduled ahead this week for FOMC on May 1, including jobless claims and unemployment data on May 2 and May 3, respectively.
As we approach the last days of April, Bitcoin price continues to stay under selling pressure, recently hitting yet another ten-day low. With just two days left for the April candle close, Bitcoin is all set to record the worst month in 18 months since November 2022.
The instability in the macro and the geopolitical landscape has put risk-ON assets including Bitcoin under pressure. The short-term landscape remains concerning as there is a huge build-up of the seller’s interest between the all-time highs and the current price. Thus, even though the price discovery is just another $12,000 from here, it seems difficult to reach.
Some optimists contend that BTC/USD is currently in a consolidation phase, suggesting that the market may eventually resume the bullish trend experienced in the first quarter. Adding to this sentiment, there is a sense of déjà vu this week – as Hong Kong prepares to launch its own spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Tuesday, April 30, following a similar move by the United States.
Although the Bitcoin price has seen a few relief bounces, it has failed to surge past $65,000 while encountering selling pressure repeatedly. On the downside, the Bitcoin bears also haven’t managed to breach below the support of $60,000. In his recent analysis, Skew wrote: “I do see the potential for longer crab between $67K – $58K till proper flow supported breakout”.
$BTC 1W
I do see the potential for longer crab between $67K – $58K till proper flow supported breakoutPrevious cycle 2018 – 2021
Price had actually an echo bubble with backtested 1M close as resistancethen 21 – 28days consolidation prior to breaching ATHs & parabolic run… https://t.co/8d3b3qNnb2 pic.twitter.com/gCh5EVHt3C
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) April 28, 2024
Skew pointed out that regardless of its final position, the monthly close would establish a significant new focus for Bitcoin’s price. “In approximately 2 days, the 1-month close will occur, and subsequent to that, the monthly and weekly opening levels will serve as crucial reference points,” he explained.
Key Week for Bitcoin Ahead
Bitcoin’s immediate success hinges on major macroeconomic events scheduled ahead this week along with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, May 1, over the next interest rate decision. An overwhelming majority of analysts 95% believe that the interest rates with remain unchanged in the face of high inflation numbers.
Aside from the FOMC, the key macro events for the week include jobless claims and unemployment data on May 2 and May 3, respectively. Despite this lineup of events, the outlook for Bitcoin and risk assets may remain positive, unless sentiment shifts towards anticipating a notable deterioration in economic conditions. In the worst case scenario, if the Bitcoin price loses the support of $58,000, it could fall further to $50,000, and even beyond to $46,000.