By
Bena Ilyas
April 23rd, 2024
Musk’s prediction comes amidst an ongoing debate regarding the potential risks and benefits of AI development.
Elon Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur renowned for his ventures in SpaceX and Tesla, has made a bold prediction about the future of artificial intelligence (AI).
Musk predicted that AI would likely surpass the intelligence of individual humans by next year and could outmatch all humans’ combined intelligence by 2029.
AI Could Replace Humans
A discussion between popular podcaster Joe Rogan and futurist Ray Kurzweil sparked Musk’s prediction.
Kurzweil had claimed in the podcast that AI would achieve human-level intelligence by 2029, a sentiment Musk seemed to agree with. He even suggested that AI could outpace human intelligence as early as next year.
AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined. https://t.co/RO3g2OCk9x
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 13, 2024
The type of AI capable of surpassing human intelligence is Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a concept that has attracted considerable attention from tech leaders worldwide.
The advancement of sophisticated AI systems like ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini has further propelled AGI into the spotlight.
Despite its growing prominence, there remains a lack of consensus on the exact definition of AGI. Generally, AGI refers to AI models that can perform any task a human can and potentially even outperform humans in certain areas.
Elon Musk: People Could Lose Control of AI
Musk’s prediction comes amidst an ongoing debate regarding the potential risks and benefits of AI development.
While some view AI as a tool for progress and innovation, others, including Musk, have expressed concerns about the implications of creating machines that could surpass human intelligence.
During the UK’s AI safety summit in November 2023, the billionaire entrepreneur and CEO of both Tesla and SpaceX warned that artificial intelligence is a risk to humans.
He further noted that if innovations in the AI sector continue, humans might lose control of it.
“It’s unclear to me if we can control such a thing [AI]. But I think we can aspire to guide it in a direction that’s beneficial to humanity,” he said at the summit.
The billionaire entrepreneur also suggested during a conversation with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at Lancaster House that AI could be “the most disruptive force in history.”
Musk also emphasized the unprecedented nature of AI’s development, envisioning a future where AI could surpass human intelligence and even possess human-like capabilities to perform tasks and jobs.
AI’s Potential Impact on National Security
As AI technology advances, a recent report commissioned by the US Department warns of potential national security risks. The report suggests that advanced AI systems could pose a severe threat if not properly managed.
It highlights concerns that AI could lead to catastrophic outcomes, even posing a risk of human extinction. One major concern is the potential weaponization of AI, which could result in irreversible harm.
Additionally, there are fears within the AI community that the technology could become uncontrollable, leading to severe global security issues. The report compares the emergence of AI to the advent of nuclear weapons, emphasizing the dangers of an AI arms race, conflicts, and large-scale accidents.