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Bitcoin is all set for its mega rally in Q4 2021 as the fractal theory shows that any breakout above $60,000 can lead to Bitcoin price rallying all the way to $250,000.
So far, the month of September 2021 has been the month of subdued performance for Bitcoin and the overall crypto space. As of now, the crypto market is under strong correction losing ~7.5% and slipping under $2 trillion valuations. Bitcoin (BTC) has lost a similar 7% and is currently trading at $45,093 and a market cap of $848 billion. However, this long-standing fractal suggests that the Bitcoin rally could lead the coin to $250,000 and $350,000 by the year-end.
While it’s been 15 months since the Bitcoin halving of May 2020, some analysts have not yet forgotten it. Pseudonymous crypto analyst Bit Harington draws inferences from the past Bitcoin halving cycles.
Bitcoin halving is traditionally a bullish event as it cuts the Bitcoin mining rewards to half. The shortfall in the BTC supply accounts for a major price rally. Post the first two halvings, in 2012 and 2016, the Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied 600% each time.
From the bitcoin charts determined by PlanB’s stock-to-flow model, $60,000 remains as the current resistance. If Bitcoin manages to give a convincing breakout above this, it can rally all the way to $250K-$300K.
What if… ? #Bitcoin
[R=Resistance, S=Support] From the R/S line Bitcoin pumped ~6X after halving 1 (~$200 to ~$1200) and also ~6X after halving 2 (~$3K to ~$20K)… pic.twitter.com/aCJ7Cb4OA2
— Bit Harington (@bitharington) September 19, 2021
As we can see in the above image, the horizontal lines represent the resistance as well as the support. Traders test this for multiple breakouts before successfully breaching it and attaining new record-high levels. Similarly, the $60,000 level is one such resistance as of now.
Bitcoin Double Top After Halving
Taking this perspective further Harington explains that Bitcoin always faces a “double top” before breaking out above the resistance bar. Harington adds:
“From this perspective there’s a Bitcoin double top” after every halving. It wasn’t really obvious after halving 2 (like the obvious double top after halving 1), but you can still see this double top in various indicators,” like the weekly RSI.”
Other crypto market analysts have also supported this idea. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe supported this fractal theory. However, the fractal theory also notes that after a major price surge, the BTC price crashes once again back to the resistance levels.
“This makes a ton of sense and in line with my ideas too. Somewhere 2017 we are. Heavy breakout to come at a later stage to ~$250-350K and then landing on $65K in the bear market for Bitcoin,” Poppe added.