By
Steve Muchoki
April 19th, 2024
Besides this predictive Bitcoin tool, Hedgeye also has a quantitative Bitcoin dashboard called the “Bitcoin Trend Tracker.”
Hedgeye analyst Josh Steiner has developed a model in which he drew on the fundamental analysis of the Stock-to-Flow model of Bitcoin (BTC) in comparison with other factors, to project a $1 million price for Bitcoin before the end of this decade. Hedgeye Risk Management is an investment research and financial media company based in Stamford, Connecticut, and specializes in market analytics through the quantitative study of industries in which they operate.
The Steiner developed fundamental analytics model focuses on Bitcoin, the world’s first and largest digital currency by market capitalization. In the past decade, BTC has toppled its own records and attained over $1.2 trillion valuations back in April when it hit an all-time high price above $64,000. While unfavorable market conditions – including harsh regulations and energy consumption FUD – have dragged the prices down, investors are still looking for avenues to get in on the train. Hedgeye gives the quantitative basis that can help all classes of investors make the right investment push, and mitigate risks.
The Hedgeye Analysis Prediction $1M Price for Bitcoin Per the S2F Model
The Stock-to-Flow model factors in the rate at which an asset is released into the market against its existing supply. When the United States real estate niche is considered based on this model, the S2F ratio is pegged at 93x. The total supply of new housing units is about 1.5 million units annually, against a total of 140 million.
Gold has an S2F ratio of approximately 72x as roughly 2.75 tonnes are mined annually against 200k tonnes in current circulation. When Bitcoin is put into perspective, the current S2F ratio is pegged at 54x atop 344,000 mined coins annually, against an 18.6 million total supply. Unlike real estate and gold which has an almost static S2F for many years now, Bitcoin’s S2F model is expected to grow over time.
Drawing on the 4-year halving event, Bitcoin’s S2F ratio is expected to increase 10-fold every 12 years. This will bring the Stock-to-Flow model to 1000x by 2036, and to 10,000x by 2048. This exponential increase is poised to impact the price of the asset in a corresponding manner. Steiner developed the publicly accessible power regression relationship y=1.3268×2.4769, a quantitative relationship that predicts Bitcoin’s price in relation to the S2F model.
“Every 10-fold increase in Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow ratio, which will happen every ~12 years going forward, has produced a ~1,000-fold increase in Bitcoin’s price. And that hasn’t happened once, but twice,” according to a description of the effect of the relationship.
Based on this projection, Bitcoin is on track to attain a price of $1 million by 2030, $10 million by 2039, and by $100 million by 2057.
Other Hedgeye Products
Besides this predictive Bitcoin tool, Hedgeye also has a quantitative Bitcoin dashboard called the “Bitcoin Trend Tracker.” This tracker provides exhaustive, daily quantitative analytics on a range of cryptocurrencies and Exchange Traded Funds. This tool is useful for both retail and institutional investors. The dashboard breaks down the price, volume, and volatility among several other metrics of each asset it tracks.
This and more tools brandished by the Hedgeye team seek to give investors a similar resource available to traditional market players, all for an informed and productive investment engagement.