Polymarket data shows that the probability of a spot XRP ETF approval has fallen from 86% to 62% following SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw’s opposition.
By Bhushan Akolkar
Editor Hamza Tariq
Updated
2 mins read
The odds of spot XRP ETF approval have tanked more than 9% to 62% soon after Caroline Crenshaw, the Commissioner of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said that she remains opposed to crypto ETFs.
However, the XRP XRP $3.07 24h volatility: 4.3% Market cap: $181.99 B Vol. 24h: $4.53 B price is showing strength, as bulls continue to hold it at $3.05 levels.
As per the Polymarket data, the odds of approval for XRP ETFs stood at 86% on August 5. In the last two days, however, this number has tanked to 62% as of now.
XRP ETF approval Odds | Source: Polymarket
Last week, Bloomberg ETF strategist Eric Balchunas stated that the odds of approval in September-October have gone up.
The optimism stems from XRP now meeting the SEC’s updated listing criteria, which require tokens to have had derivative trading activity for a minimum of six months.
Speculation is building that a BlackRock XRP ETF could be in development. Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, stated that the world’s largest asset manager could soon make a move in this direction.
In the latest development, Ripple partner SBI Holdings filed for a dual ETF, involving Bitcoin and XRP, in the Japanese market.
This shows that the demand for XRP ETFs is already rising in the overseas markets as well.
On August 6, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) conducted 13 internal votes related to various crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), including IBIT, BITB, GBTC, Bitwise’s Bitcoin and Ethereum funds, and in-kind redemption mechanisms.
All votes passed with a 3-1 margin, with Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw alone emerging objecting to it.
Crenshaw, currently the only Democrat on the Commission, has consistently opposed the growing approval of crypto ETFs.
According to journalist Eleanor Terrett, her repeated objections send a strong signal of her firm opposition to crypto ETPs, particularly any potential developments involving an XRP ETF.
Lone Democrat @SECGov commissioner Caroline Crenshaw is sending a clear message: she remains firmly opposed to crypto ETFs. https://t.co/NT4gCLH2k9
— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) August 7, 2025
The SEC recently approved in-kind creation and redemption processes for both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
On the other hand, Crenshaw’s objections also extend to broader crypto policy, including recent SEC guidance on liquid staking.
She describes it as legally weak and disconnected from real-world applications.
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Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.