By
Godfrey Benjamin
April 19th, 2024
Bitcoin price consolidates gains between $9,200 and $9,600. Some experts believe that the next halving event that is around 98 days away would push it significantly higher.
It is most likely that Bitcoin will gain from a rapid drop in Asian stock markets due to the coronavirus menace. Crypto analysts believe that the flagship token will gain soon. Apart from that, the halving event is fast-approaching. Bitcoin is less than 99 days away from its halving event. Most of the market commentators are bullish on its impact.
Bitcoin price smashed the $9,600 hurdle for the first time since November 2019. Nonetheless, the weekend session was also dominated by significant consolidation between $9,200 and $9,600. Bitcoin currently has a market capitalization of $169.9 billion. Attempts to surge towards the $9,700 resistance succeeded in increasing selling pressure. Thus, the gains were contained within this range.
Interestingly, the consolidation that currently dominates the markers is enabling the bulls to nurture a breakout. As long as the price remains above the accelerated trendlines, Bitcoin can register new 2020 highs. The token is trading range-bound, with the volatility levels still significantly low.
As we reported earlier, the Bitcoin price registered the best January in seven years. It rose by 10% last week and almost 30% since December. This trend coincides with a similar rally that took place in January 2013. On that occasion, Bitcoin prices gained 54.5%. 2013 is so far the best year for Bitcoin. If the current price action continues, new highs might be possible.
As the week started, the altcoins have also shown signs of growth. A majority of the top altcoins have gained by almost 1%. Ether, at some point, posted a 1.8% daily growth. Currently, it has a market capitalization of $20.7 billion. On the other hand, XRP managed 4.7%, and Tezos surged 8.9%. The total crypto market cap was at over $260.2 billion, with Bitcoin’s dominance still hovering around 65.3%.
Bitcoin Halving Is Getting Closer
Many consider the Bitcoin halving event to be a significant factor influencing the token’s price action. The BTC prices have historically surged during and after such periods. This time around, the crypto sphere seems divided on the Bitcoin prices. Some are convinced that prices will explode due to the reduction of the rewards for mining per block.
As the demand for bitcoins increases, the price will increase with the halving event. On the other hand, others think that the event will leave the BTC prices unchanged. They believe that there will be no change since the event has received a lot of press time already. Hence, it has diluted the hype.
In a February 1 tweet, Weiss Ratings presented a clear summary of Bitcoin price performance over its last two block reward halvings. Weiss is convinced that these events help the price of Bitcoin. In the first event that happened in late November 2012, BTC traded at $12. Four years later, the second halving came about, and the BTC price was $652.
Here’s how #Bitcoin halvings have impacted the market. So, does the Bitcoin halving help drive prices higher? Absolutely. The only question now is how high will #BTC go this time around? pic.twitter.com/YnSp4Y8igO
— Weiss Crypto (@WeissCrypto) February 1, 2020
With the token gaining more than 30% in January, expectations are higher than ever. Many believe that the price action will be a lot closer to $12,000 than $12. The only question that now remains is how high BTC will go this time around.
As we highlighted earlier, Tom Lee and other proponents are convinced that the price of Bitcoin will rise to $27,000 around six months from now. However, there is another group of analysts who think that the price will not surge as high because miners might drag it down.
Bitcoin Will Beat Gold
The effect of the 2016 halving event somehow delayed with BTC reaching an all-time high of $20,000 in a bull run that happened a year later. In a similar manner, some commentators expect a delay period to accompany this year’s block reward halving to 6.25 BTC. Other statistics make 2020 a conspicuous year for Bitcoin.
For instance, the halving will reduce Bitcoin’s rate to less than that of gold and the Federal Reserve’s target for the U.S. economy. Taking into context one historically accurate price model that successfully demonstrates the effect of BTC supply reduction, the token may reach a new all-time high of $100,000 in 2021.
Possible Scenarios
So far there are four possible scenarios depending on the different block time metrics. Each of these scenarios is a moving estimate, and the charts, timestamp, and values shown are re-calculated daily.
The average daily block time represents the average execution time of every bitcoin block that is mined a day before. The number of blocks left to be mined until the next halving is multiplied with the average daily block times to get an estimate of the number of days left until the next halving. It is possible to determine the timestamp for the next halving using this measure.
Scenario 1 projects that based on the average daily block time (ETA), it will happen on May 12, 2020, at 12:29:11 UTC. Scenario 2 postulates that based on the Cumulative Average Block Time (CETA), the halving will take place on May 08, 2020, at 12:30:03 UTC.
The third scenario is based on the Simple Moving Average Block Time over 50 days (SMA50), which suggests that it will take place on May 09, 2020, at 15:09:12 UTC. The fourth possible scenario is based on Exponential Moving Average Block time over 200 days (EMA200), which suggests that the halving will take place on May 09, 2020, at 23:17:05 UTC.
Any of these scenarios is possible. Time will tell exactly when the bitcoin halving event will happen.