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The ongoing macroeconomic events have a massive toll on the price of cryptocurrencies, and according to Arthur Hayes, there may still be more downsides to watch out for.
In a very long analysis shared on his Medium page, BitMEX co-founder, Arthur Hayes has expressed confidence in his projections that Ethereum (ETH), the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency will hit $10,000 despite the broader macro-economic uncertainties at play today.
Hayes extensively talked about the rise in inflation which the Federal Reserve is doing all it possibly can to stem. Thus far, the apex bank has raised inflation by 75 basis points in two phases of 25% and 50% respectively. To Hayes, this can be likened to gobbling up on Big Mac burgers served with a medium-sized Coke and expecting the masses not to choke.
Hayes said the drivers of the economy believe that when interest rates are high, and the prices of food climb up, it will discourage purchases, sending supply growing to a point that eventually forces down prices. While the logic is not comprehensible to consumers who literally pay more for food and fuel, Hayes argued that the same holds true for richer citizens who see their networth plummet with the plunge in the assets they hold.
Hayes points out the effect of the current monetary tightening policy of the US Federal Reserve, sharing a chart that showed that the 2022 rate of growth return of the US 10-year treasury is the worst since 1788. To Hayes, the war between Ukraine and Russia is bound to stir a degeneration in this whole event considering the fact that both countries account for a large portion of the energy and food that many people around the world need.
“Together, Russia and Ukraine produce a large amount of fuel and food. The longer this conflict drags on, the less access the rest of the world will have to these key resources. And the truly frightening aspect is that, when shut down, complex systems do not resume prior output in a linear fashion. We may lose a significant amount of global agricultural and energy output for decades due to the current disruptions,” Hayes wrote.
BitMEX Exchange’s Arthur Hayes Take on Crypto Outlook
The ongoing macroeconomic events have a massive toll on the price of cryptocurrencies, and according to Arthur Hayes, there may still be more downsides to watch out for. To Arthur, the local bottom for Bitcoin (BTC) is pegged within the $25,000 to $27,000 range while for Ether, it is pegged at $1,700 to $1,800.
The downside is expected did not deter Hayes from maintaining his projected $10,000 price target for Ether, however, he affirmed he is no longer confident in the timeline which he previously said will be achieved by the end of this year.
“I laid out a thesis for why I believed Ether could hit $10,000 by year end. In light of the recent carnage, many readers wonder if I still believe in that target. In short, yes! However, because the resumption of the bull market is a political affair I have less confidence in my timing estimate,” he wrote.
Hayes remains one of the industry experts that has seen it all, including being embroiled in a lawsuit with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and his analysis will always be revered by many.