Fed’s Last Pause Threatens Bitcoin’s $250K Bull Case
By Daniel Francis
Editor CoinSpeaker Editorial Team
Updated
3 mins read
In Bitcoin news today, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% on Wednesday in what was almost certainly Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair, with an 8-4 FOMC vote revealing a committee more fractured than the headline hold implies.
Bitcoin traded near $76,000 by late Wednesday in New York, down from $77,000 earlier in the session, extending a roughly 40% drawdown from October 2025’s all-time high near $126,000.
The analytical question is no longer whether the pause delays the bull case by a quarter. It is whether the three simultaneous tailwinds that were supposed to power the $250,000 bitcoin price prediction, monetary easing, crypto regulation clarity, and AI-sector momentum, have stalled long enough to render the thesis structurally inoperative for this cycle.
JUST IN: THE FED LEFT INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 3.50% TO 3.75%, BUT THE VOTE WAS THE MOST DIVIDED FOMC DECISION SINCE OCTOBER 1992 🇺🇸
The vote: 8-4 in favor of holding rates.
The dissents went in opposite directions:
– Miran dissented in favor of a 0.25% rate cut
– Hammack,… pic.twitter.com/shAPgoNFUf— WOLF (@WOLF_Financial) April 29, 2026
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The mechanism transmitting the FOMC decision into Bitcoin’s price trajectory operates as follows: a rate hold in an environment of sticky inflation compresses risk appetite by sustaining real opportunity cost across dollar-denominated assets, withdrawing the incremental liquidity that speculative positions in high-beta assets require to attract marginal capital.
The 2022 episode established the empirical template, a 65% collapse in Bitcoin’s price unfolded in direct correspondence with the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening cycle in four decades, as duration-sensitive risk assets repriced simultaneously.
Wednesday’s hold was not tightening, but it was not the easing the $250,000 thesis priced in. The committee cited “developments in the Middle East” as a material source of uncertainty, coded language for an oil supply shock that is doing exactly what oil supply shocks do to central bank optionality.
Source: Tradingview
Brent crude has been pinned above $110 a barrel for most of April, with the Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly 20% of seaborne oil flows, continuing to disrupt shipping. The US national average gas price reached $4.22 a gallon this week, up 6.2% in a month.
Jerry Tempelman, a former senior analyst at the New York Fed and now vice president of economic and fixed-income research at Mutual of America Capital Management, characterized the disruption as something that “could result in prolonged pricing stress that trickles through the market,” concluding that a 2026 cut looks unlikely absent a severe energy or labor-market shock.
CME FedWatch data corroborates that judgment, with traders pricing rates on hold through December. The FOMC dissent structure is informative but not yet decisive: Governor Stephen Miran pushed for an immediate cut while three others dissented against easing language, producing a vote that signals genuine disagreement rather than a committee moving coherently in either direction. That ambiguity is itself a headwind – markets price certainty, not internal debate.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanics. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel leverages his background in on-chain analytics to author evidence-based reports and deep-dive guides. He holds certifications from The Blockchain Council, and is dedicated to providing "information gain" that cuts through market hype to find real-world blockchain utility.
