By
Josh O'Sullivan
April 30th, 2024
Novogratz thinks the Fidelity Investments victory against the SEC puts the Commission in a corner where a Bitcoin ETF approval is inevitable.
Galaxy Digital CEO and founder Mike Novogratz has announced a prediction that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) before the end of the year.
Speaking during an interview on CNBC Market Alert, Novogratz said signs are pointing to an approval soon. He said:
“We think a Bitcoin ETF will be approved this year in 2023. All the indications of dealing seem to be heading in the right direction. There’s a tremendous amount of pressure to do something that is rational. The American public wants this.”
Novogratz Explains Bullishness on Spot Bitcoin ETF This Year
In his comments on the matter, Novogratz noted that “the most significant piece is the SEC lost in the court.” The CEO was referring to Grayscale Investments’ win against the SEC in court. The Court of Appeals had rejected the SEC’s disapproval of Gracyscale’s intention to convert its Bitcoin trust to an ETF. The court basically wondered why the SEC approved two Bitcoin futures exchange-traded products, but not Grayscale’s proposal. The SEC decided not to file an appeal. Novogratz added:
“The judge said, ‘what are you talking about SEC? You have a futures ETF and you’re saying you can’t have a cash ETF. That makes intellectually zero sense.’ And I think that put the SEC on the back foot.”
Novogratz’s new timeline is sooner than an earlier prediction the CEO offered. In August, Novogratz said the approval would come by February at the latest. According to him at the time, the SEC would permit a spot Bitcoin ETF in “four to six months.”
Galaxy Digital is also in the race for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval from the SEC. The company teamed up with Invesco to submit an upgraded proposal to the SEC and is now awaiting approval.
General Optimism around Chance of Approval
The buzz around a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval pushed Bitcoin near $29,000, especially after Fidelity Investments amended its proposal for the Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust. The amendment saw Fidelity adding information on disclosing risks and uncertainties, as well as protecting customers’ Bitcoin. Invesco and Ark Invest also refiled their proposals.
On Monday, Bitcoin briefly hit $30,000 after a false announcement that the SEC had approved BlackRock’s proposal.
Analysts are optimistic that the SEC will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF this year. For instance, Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchuna and James Seyffart have said there is a 95% chance of approval by the end of 2024. Another analyst known as Crypto Rover posted on X (formerly Twitter) that “the SEC has no option but to approve the Bitcoin spot ETF.” According to the analyst, Grayscale’s win in court means that the first ETF is only a matter of time. In the post, Crypto Rover points out that the final deadline for the initial application, from ARK, is January 10th, 2024.
“If the SEC were to approve any ETF, it’s likely that they would approve all of them at once. They wouldn’t just accept BlackRock’s and deny the rest. Therefore, I expect the first BTC spot ETF to be introduced before January 10th, 2024,” the post reads.