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Bitcoin price is hinged on the current perception of the macroeconomic outlook and monetary policies from the United States Federal Reserve.
The forthcoming Bitcoin (BTC) halving slated for April 2023 might have a significant impact in helping to push the price of digital currency to a new pedestal. The anticipation of the Bitcoin network event has spurred a renewed bullish projection from the top industry analyst.
According to insight from Bloomberg Intelligence and Matrixport, the upcoming halving event has the potential to help push the price of Bitcoin upward by at least 81%. The digital currency is changing hands at $27,419.85, down by 1.45% over the past 24 hours according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Despite the fact that Bitcoin’s current outlook is a bearish one, the premier digital asset has recorded a largely positive performance for the bigger part of the year. Data shows that Bitcoin is up by 65.51% in the Year-to-Date (YTD) and Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst, Jamie Douglas Coutts noted that the upcoming Halving is just 50% price in.
“Bitcoin cycles bottom around 12-18 months prior to the halving and this cycle structure looks similar to the past ones, albeit many things have changed – while the network is vastly stronger, Bitcoin has never endured a prolonged severe economic contraction,” he said.
According to Jamie, Bitcoin looks very poised to retest the $50,000 price level by April 2024 following the halving event.
Notably, the fundamentals behind Halving back this bullish projection as the rate of Bitcoin production is projected to be cut by half. Riding on the law of demand and supply, the reduced production rate mixed with higher demand from both retail and institutional investors is bound to fuel the imminent growth in the price of digital currency.
Bitcoin (BTC) Headwinds Projection
Part of the key projection for Bitcoin price is hinged on the current perception of the macroeconomic outlook and monetary policies from the United States Federal Reserve. While inflation is pegged at approximately 5% for the month of March, the fears of a steady interest rate hike remain a major consideration to embrace risk assets or not.
The regulatory environment in the United States as it concerns the crackdown on top industry players by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is also a major headwind for the projected performance in the price of Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin is not exactly the target of the SEC which has named even Ethereum (ETH) a security, the outlook emanating from the crackdowns is unhealthy for the industry as a whole. The digital currency ecosystem, with Bitcoin as the main asset, has experienced a lot of battery following the collapse of the FTX derivatives exchange. However, analysts believe the bottom is in and more upside momentum is in view for the cryptocurrency moving forward.
“If the collapse of FTX was indeed the bottom of this cycle, then history would suggest that we still have approximately 350 days of ‘accumulation’ before witnessing the characteristic post-halving breakout price action,” said Jacob Joseph, an analyst at CCData.