Despite a 385% rally since late 2024, the Ripple cryptocurrency seems to have hit the glass ceiling. Furthermore, on-chain data highlights the vulnerability of XRP buyers.
Is XRP Price Preparing for a Near 80% Decline?
Over 70% of XRP’s realized market capitalization was accumulated between late 2024 and early 2025, according to data from Glassnode. This indicates a significant concentration of market activity in a short timeframe.
The realized cap of the 3-to-6-month age band has seen a notable rise since November 2024, with sharp increases following January 2025 when XRP hit a peak of approximately $3.40.
Such a top-heavy market structure highlights fragility, as newer investors react more to XRP price swings, thereby triggering sharp corrections during market sell-offs. Historical trends echo this concern.
In late 2017, XRP’s price peaked near $3.55 following an increase in realized cap from young coins, only to experience a 95% drawdown. A similar pattern emerged in 2021, with a sharp rise in realized cap among short-term holders preceding an 80% decline.
Based on these patterns, XRP price seems to have formed a local top in January 2025, and is likely to face a similar downtrend in the coming months.
Ripple Address Activity Takes a dive
Back in March 2025, the total number of active XRP addresses hit record-high levels. However, the address activity has been on a consistent decline since then, tanking by a massive 90%, before recovering partially.
XRP Active Addresses – Source: Glassnode
The significant decline in active addresses may indicate that fewer people are using XRP for transactions, instead opting to hold their tokens.
Moreover, the XRP price weekly chart reveals a consolidation phase within a falling wedge pattern. As of May 26, the cryptocurrency appeared to enter a short-term correction after failing to breach the wedge’s upper trendline.
XRP weekly chart – Source: TradingView
If recent price action continues, a broader pullback could drive XRP toward the wedge’s lower trendline, which coincides with the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA, marked in red) near $1.76, which is approximately 25% below current levels.
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Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.