Coinspeaker partnered with ICOBox to provide our readers with this weekly analysis conducted by Professor Dima Kornilov and Dima Zaitsev devoted to cryptocurrency and digital assets markets.

Information as of October 15, 2017 (results for the period from July 1, 2017)

This report was created by:

    • Professor Dmitrii Kornilov, Doctor of Economics, Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, and Leading Analyst at ICOBox;
    • Dima Zaitsev, PhD in Economics, Head of International Public Relations and Business Analytics Department Chief at ICOBox;
    • Nick Evdokimov, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
    • Mike Raitsyn, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
    • Anar Babaev, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
    • Daria Generalova, Co-Founder of ICOBox;

This report presents data on the cryptocurrency and ICO market changes that took place in the third quarter, with special emphasis on an analysis of the changes that took place during the second week of Q4 2017.

  1. General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month, quarter). Market trends.

      1.1General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, quarter).

Table 1.1. Trends in the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and main cryptocurrencies from August 1, 2017 to October 15, 2017.

# Parameter 1-Aug-17 1-Sep-17 MoM, % 1-Oct-17 MoM, % 8-Oct-17 WoW, % 15-Oct-17 WoW, %
1 Total market capitalization, USD billion 89.54 171.64 91.69% 147.87 -13.85% 149.91 1.36% 176.77 15.20%
2 Altcoin market capitalization, USD billion 45.23 95.11 110.28% 75.91 -20.19% 76.33 0.55% 79.76 4.30%
Altcoin dominance, % 50.51% 55.41% 9.70% 51.34% -7.35% 50.92% -0.82% 45.12% -12.85%
3 Bitcoin price, $ 2689.44 4627.23 72.05% 4341.05 -6.18% 4429.67 2.00% 5835.96 24.10%
Bitcoin market capitalization, USD billion 44.31 76.53 72.71% 72.05 -5.86% 73.58 2.08% 97.01 24.16%
Bitcoin dominance, % 49.49% 44.59% -9.90% 48.72% 9.27% 49.08% 0.73% 54.88% 10.57%
4 Ethereum price, $ 200.97 355.64 76.96% 301.55 -15.21% 311.06 3.06% 339.53 8.39%
Ethereum market capitalization, USD billion 18.82 33.57 78.37% 28.62 -14.76% 29.55 3.17% 32.29 8.49%
Ethereum dominance, % 21.02% 19.56% -6.95% 19.35% -1.07% 19.71% 1.83% 18.27% -7.91%
5 Litecoin price, $ 40.89 79.97 95.57% 55.14 -31.05% 52.49 -5.05% 64.13 18.15%
Litecoin market capitalization, USD billion 2.13 4.21 97.65% 2.93 -30.36% 2.80 -4.83% 3.42 18.29%
Litecoin dominance, % 2.38% 2.45% 3.11% 1.98% -19.08% 1.87% -6.27% 1.94% 3.65%
6 Smith + Crown Index n/a 10345 n/a 9147 -13.10% 9289 1.53% 11056 15.98%
7 Volume (24h) 3 Crypto, USD million 3030 3757 123.99% 1566 -139.94% 2137 26.73% 2892 26.10%
Market Cap 3 Crypto, USD million 72942 123740 169.64% 108240 -14.32% 112324 3.64% 139227 19.32%
ZAK-3 crypto index 4.15% 3.04% 1.45% 1.45% -109.89% 1.90% 23.96% 2.08% 8.40%
8 Volume (24h) 5 crypto, USD million n/a 5702 n/a 1830 -211.57% 2441 25.04% 3479 29.82%
Market cap 5 crypto, USD million n/a 137216 n/a 118380 -15.91% 121126 2.27% 148035 18.18%
ZAK-5 crypto index n/a 4.16% n/a 1.55% -168.80% 2.02% 23.30% 2.35% 14.23%

* Data as of October 15, 2017, 00:00 UTC (figures in lines 1-6)

** Data as of October 16, 2017, 00:00 UTC (figures in lines 7-8)

Data source: coinmarketcap.com, https://www.smithandcrown.com

During the second week of October (October 9-15, 2017) total cryptocurrency market capitalization growth equaled 15.20%, from USD 149.91 to USD 176.77 billion (see Table 1.1). During the period from October 9-15, the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin exchange rates increased by 24.1%, 8.39%, and 18.15%, respectively.

Therefore, a significant growth in the cryptocurrency market has been seen over the past week. Last week the Bitcoin exchange rate appreciated from $4,429.67 to $5,835.96. Since the beginning of the month, the exchange rate has ranged from $4,164.05 (on October 5, 2017) to $5,852.48 (on October 15, 2017), i.e. by more than $1,600 (Table 1.4.2.a).

The Smith + Crown Index for September fell from 10,345 to 9,147 due to market fluctuations, but during the second week of October it increased by 15.98% and equaled 11,056.

To analyze trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the ZAK-n Crypto index is calculated (see the Glossary). The values of the ZAK-3 Crypto and ZAK-5 Crypto indices are presented in Tables 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3. On October 12 and October 13, 2017, the 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the three dominate cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple) equaled $3,564 and $5,319 million (Table 1.2), and for the five dominant cryptocurrencies – $4,168 and 5,964 million (Table 1.3). All told, the daily values of the ZAK-3 Crypto and ZAK-5 Crypto indices exceeded 3% of the market capitalization of the analyzed cryptocurrencies. The result of this increase in demand for cryptocurrencies was a significant change in their prices.

In Table 1.1, the ZAK-5 Crypto index was calculated from September 1, 2017, since the Bitcoin Cash cryptocurrency only entered the exchange on August 1, 2017, after the Bitcoin hard fork.

Table 1.2. Daily ZAK-3 Crypto index calculation (from October 1, 2017, to October 15, 2017)

Crypto   Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH) Ripple (XRP) 3 Crypto
  Price Open Volume (24h) Market cap Price Open Volume (24h) Market cap Price Open Volume (24h) Market cap Volume (24h) 3 crypto Market cap 3 crypto ZAK-3 Crypto index
Date $ USD million USD million $ USD million USD million $ USD million USD million USD million USD million %
October 15, 2017 5836.0 1 976 97 012 339.5 635 32 292 0.2575 280 9 923 2 892 139 227 2.1%
October 14, 2017 5643.5 1 669 93 803 338.9 517 32 222 0.2612 211 10 063 2 397 136 088 1.8%
October 13, 2017 5464.2 3 615 90 812 304.1 1 304 28 911 0.2483 399 9 584 5 319 129 307 4.1%
October 12, 2017 4829.6 2 792 80 257 303.5 528 28 851 0.2650 245 10 231 3 564 119 339 3.0%
October 11, 2017 4789.3 1 222 79 578 301.2 264 28 626 0.2607 161 10 062 1 648 118 266 1.4%
October 10, 2017 4776.2 1 597 79 352 297.6 360 28 281 0.2528 384 9 758 2 341 117 392 2.0%
October 9, 2017 4614.5 1 969 76 657 308.7 559 29 328 0.2788 610 10 759 3 138 116 744 2.7%
October 8, 2017 4429.7 1 314 73 575 311.1 293 29 551 0.2383 530 9 198 2 137 112 324 1.9%
October 7, 2017 4369.4 907 72 565 308.9 342 29 340 0.2340 78 9 030 1 327 110 936 1.2%
October 6, 2017 4324.5 1 070 71 811 295.2 319 28 031 0.2377 167 9 115 1 556 108 957 1.4%
October 5, 2017 4229.9 1 162 70 234 292.8 254 27 800 0.2156 404 8 266 1 820 106 300 1.7%
October 4, 2017 4319.4 1 117 71 713 292.8 258 27 794 0.2032 124 7 792 1 498 107 299 1.4%
October 3, 2017 4408.5 1 288 73 181 297.5 322 28 239 0.2032 49 7 792 1 658 109 212 1.5%
October 2, 2017 4395.8 1 432 72 963 302.5 339 28 709 0.2061 77 7 902 1 849 109 573 1.7%
October 1, 2017 4341.1 1 208 72 047 301.6 306 28 615 0.1976 51 7 578 1 566 108 240 1.4%

* Data as of October 16, 2017, 00:00 UTC

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

The 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the five dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash) at the end of the week totaled USD 3,479 million (Tables 1.1, 1.3), and equaled 2.4% of their market capitalization. The ZAK-3 Crypto and ZAK-5 Crypto indices are considered in more detail in Tables 1.2 and 1.3.

Table 1.3. Daily ZAK-5 Crypto index calculation (continuation of Table 1.2)

Crypto Litecoin (LTC) Bitcoin Cash (BCH) 5 Crypto
  Price Open Volume (24h) Market cap Price Open Volume (24h) Market cap Volume (24h)

5 crypto

Market cap

5 crypto

ZAK-5 Crypto index
Date $ USD million USD million $ USD million USD million USD million USD million %
October 15, 2017 64.13 454 3 423 322.42 133 5 385 3 479 148 035 2.4%
October 14, 2017 59.41 313 3 170 321.54 164 5 370 2 874 144 627 2.0%
October 13, 2017 60.55 357 3 230 314.15 288 5 243 5 964 137 780 4.3%
October 12, 2017 50.89 341 2 714 315.47 262 5 262 4 168 127 315 3.3%
October 11, 2017 50.75 57 2 706 320.2 132 5 341 1 837 126 313 1.5%
October 10, 2017 50.15 90 2 673 313.22 368 5 224 2 799 125 289 2.2%
October 9, 2017 53.08 152 2 829 342.76 288 5 716 3 579 125 289 2.9%
October 8, 2017 52.49 101 2 797 360.09 204 6 005 2 441 121 126 2.0%
October 7, 2017 52.14 52 2 777 363.6 91 6 063 1 470 119 776 1.2%
October 6, 2017 51.64 59 2 749 355.44 182 5 927 1 797 117 633 1.5%
October 5, 2017 51.4 70 2 736 358.42 268 5 971 2 158 115 008 1.9%
October 4, 2017 52.28 77 2 782 404.2 252 6 730 1 827 116 811 1.6%
October 3, 2017 53.39 89 2 841 421.79 130 7 022 1 877 119 075 1.6%
October 2, 2017 54.55 95 2 901 415.87 220 6 922 2 164 119 396 1.8%
October 1, 2017 55.14 100 2 932 433.38 164 7 208 1 830 118 380 1.5%

The high trading volume (Volume 24h) relative to market capitalization contributes to increased volatility and wild price changes on the cryptocurrency market. The previous report considered the relative trends in the Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange rates from the start of the year, as well as the previous Bitcoin hard fork, which led to the appearance of Bitcoin Cash.

Right now, two potential new Bitcoin hard forks, which would, of course, impact the demand for cryptocurrencies, are the subject of wide speculation (see the previous reports). Even now heightened interest in Bitcoin and a fall in demand for Bitcoin Cash can be seen (see Tables 1.4.a, 1.4.c; fig. 1).

Figure 1. Price trends of Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-1

Figure 1 clearly shows the asynchronous change in prices for Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash since early October 2017.

Below is an analysis of the daily change in the Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash exchange rates, as well as the change in one of the alternative cryptocurrencies, Ethereum, from the beginning of October 2017 (Tables 1.4.a, 1.4.b, 1.4.c).

Table 1.4.a. Daily change in the Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate, trading volume (Volume 24h) and capitalization, USD (from October 1, 2017, to October 15, 2017)

Date Open, $ High, $ Low, $ Range, $ Close, $ DoD, % D% Index, rate to start of year Volume (24h), USD million Market cap, USD million
October 15, 2017 5835.96 5852.48 5478.61 373.87 5678.19 97.4% -2.6 5.69 1 976 97 012
October 14, 2017 5643.53 5837.70 5591.64 246.06 5831.79 103.3% 3.3 5.84 1 669 93 803
October 13, 2017 5464.16 5840.30 5436.85 403.45 5647.21 103.7% 3.7 5.66 3 615 90 812
October 12, 2017 4829.58 5446.91 4822.00 624.91 5446.91 112.9% 12.9 5.46 2 792 80 257
October 11, 2017 4789.25 4873.73 4751.63 122.10 4826.48 100.9% 0.9 4.83 1 222 79 578
October 10, 2017 4776.21 4922.17 4765.10 157.07 4781.99 100.2% 0.2 4.79 1 597 79 352
October 9, 2017 4614.52 4878.71 4564.25 314.46 4772.02 103.5% 3.5 4.78 1 969 76 657
October 8, 2017 4429.67 4624.14 4405.64 218.50 4610.48 104.1% 4.1 4.62 1 314 73 575
October 7, 2017 4369.35 4443.88 4321.05 122.83 4426.89 101.3% 1.3 4.43 907 72 565
October 6, 2017 4324.46 4413.27 4320.53 92.74 4370.81 101.0% 1.0 4.38 1 070 71 811
October 5, 2017 4229.88 4362.64 4164.05 198.59 4328.41 102.3% 2.3 4.34 1 162 70 234
October 4, 2017 4319.37 4352.31 4210.42 141.89 4229.36 98.0% -2.0 4.24 1 117 71 713
October 3, 2017 4408.46 4432.47 4258.89 173.58 4317.48 97.9% -2.1 4.32 1 288 73 181
October 2, 2017 4395.81 4470.23 4377.46 92.77 4409.32 100.1% 0.1 4.42 1 432 72 963
October 1, 2017 4341.05 4403.74 4269.81 133.93 4403.74 101.5% 1.5 4.41 1 208 72 047

* Data as of October 16, 2017, 00:00 UTC

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

Table 1.4.b. Daily change in the Ethereum (ETH) exchange rate, trading volume (Volume 24h) and capitalization, USD (from October 1, 2017, to October 15, 2017)

Date Open, $ High, $ Low, $ Range, $ Close, $ DoD, % D% Index,rate to start of year Volume (24h), USD million Market cap, USD million
October 15, 2017 339.53 342.72 320.43 22.29 336.60 99.1% -0.9 41.20 635 32 292
October 14, 2017 338.85 347.98 334.70 13.28 339.63 100.3% 0.3 41.57 517 32 222
October 13, 2017 304.08 348.60 299.66 48.94 338.76 111.4% 11.4 41.46 1 304 28 911
October 12, 2017 303.50 309.15 303.29 5.86 304.14 100.2% 0.2 37.23 528 28 851
October 11, 2017 301.18 304.39 299.10 5.29 303.46 101.2% 1.2 37.14 264 28 626
October 10, 2017 297.60 306.15 293.17 12.98 299.87 100.8% 0.8 36.70 360 28 281
October 9, 2017 308.67 309.31 288.19 21.12 297.39 96.4% -3.6 36.40 559 29 328
October 8, 2017 311.06 312.54 308.03 4.51 308.61 99.2% -0.8 37.77 293 29 551
October 7, 2017 308.89 313.13 304.98 8.15 311.12 100.8% 0.8 38.08 342 29 340
October 6, 2017 295.15 308.84 294.95 13.89 308.59 104.3% 4.3 37.77 319 28 031
October 5, 2017 292.77 298.04 288.84 9.20 295.86 101.1% 1.1 36.21 254 27 800
October 4, 2017 292.75 299.39 290.89 8.50 292.66 100.1% 0.1 35.82 258 27 794
October 3, 2017 297.48 300.11 288.13 11.98 292.46 98.3% -1.7 35.80 322 28 239
October 2, 2017 302.48 302.92 294.58 8.34 297.48 98.4% -1.6 36.41 339 28 709
October 1, 2017 301.55 303.19 295.06 8.13 302.34 100.3% 0.3 37.01 306 28 615

* Data as of October 16, 2017, 00:00 UTC

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

From the start of the month (October 1-15, 2017), the Bitcoin exchange rate increased from $4,341.05 to $5,678.19, and the Ethereum exchange rate from $301.55 to $336.60 (Tables 1.4.a, 1.4.b), with the largest appreciation being seen last week. The largest fluctuations in the daily range (Range) of the Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange rates were $624.91 (on October 12, 2017) and $48.94 (on October 13, 2017), respectively. The price trends are shown in figures 2, 3.

Figure 2, 3. Price trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-23

As can be seen from figures 2 and 3, the appreciation and depreciation of the Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange rates usually coincide, but the growth trend of the Bitcoin exchange rate is higher (equaling 34.4% over the past two weeks, compared to 12.5% for Ethereum).

Table 1.4.c. Daily change in the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) exchange rate, trading volume (Volume 24h) and capitalization, USD (from October 1, 2017, to October 15, 2017)

Date Open, $ High, $ Low, $ Range, $ Close, $ DoD, % D% Index, rate to Aug 1, 2017 Volume (24h), USD million Market cap, USD million
October 15, 2017 322.4 323.6 307.7 15.9 315.0 97.8% -2.2 0.83 133 5 385
October 14, 2017 321.5 327.4 317.4 10.1 322.0 100.2% 0.2 0.85 164 5 370
October 13, 2017 314.2 323.1 304.4 18.7 321.5 102.6% 2.6 0.85 288 5 243
October 12, 2017 315.5 330.1 310.7 19.4 313.2 99.5% -0.5 0.82 262 5 262
October 11, 2017 320.2 321.3 312.1 9.1 314.9 97.9% -2.1 0.83 132 5 341
October 10, 2017 313.2 352.0 311.7 40.3 321.6 102.4% 2.4 0.85 368 5 224
October 9, 2017 342.8 342.8 289.0 53.7 314.2 91.8% -8.2 0.83 288 5 716
October 8, 2017 360.1 362.5 337.0 25.5 342.2 94.9% -5.1 0.90 204 6 005
October 7, 2017 363.6 364.9 356.1 8.8 360.8 99.4% -0.6 0.95 91 6 063
October 6, 2017 355.4 371.3 355.0 16.3 363.0 102.0% 2.0 0.96 182 5 927
October 5, 2017 358.4 371.2 348.5 22.7 355.8 99.2% -0.8 0.94 268 5 971
October 4, 2017 404.2 404.5 354.6 49.9 358.5 88.7% -11.3 0.94 252 6 730
October 3, 2017 421.8 421.8 395.7 26.1 404.2 96.0% -4.0 1.06 130 7 022
October 2, 2017 415.9 430.9 411.8 19.0 421.2 101.5% 1.5 1.11 220 6 922
October 1, 2017 433.4 436.9 415.2 21.8 415.2 96.0% -4.0 1.09 164 7 208

* Data as of October 16, 2017, 00:00 UTC

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

The Bitcoin Cash exchange rate depreciated from $433.40 to $315 (Table 1.4.c) during the analyzed period (October 1-15, 2017), with the largest fluctuation in the daily range equaling $49.90 (October 4, 2017).

The total Bitcoin Cash exchange rate index from August 1, 2017, equaled 0.83 (the rate of $380 at the close of the day on August 1, 2017, was taken as the basis for the calculation), i.e. during the period after the Bitcoin hard fork and the appearance of the new Bitcoin Cash cryptocurrency its exchange rate has fallen by 17%, while the Bitcoin exchange rate has appreciated over the same period by 109%.

The Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange rates from the start of 2017 have increased by a factor of 5.69 and 41.2, respectively (see Tables 1.4.a, 1.4.b).

Despite the bans and restrictions on the circulation of cryptocurrencies in China adopted in September 2017, which resulted in a fall in the exchange rates of most cryptocurrencies, the market again began to show growth in October. This attests to the global scale of circulation of cryptocurrencies and the tremendous growth potential on global markets, regardless of the absence of real security. The following are the main reasons for the positive trend of Bitcoin in particular, and the cryptocurrency market as a whole: the upcoming Bitcoin SegWit2x, the recognition of blockchain technology (including at the government level), the gradual dissemination and validation (recognition) to a certain extent of cryptocurrencies. The possibility of regulating mining, as well as the processes of circulation and issue of cryptocurrencies, is being discussed at the government level in a number of countries. Cryptocurrencies are already being used as a means of payment, the process of registration of operators that exchange them for fiat currencies is underway, cryptocurrency circulation infrastructure is being expanded, and the number of cryptocurrency ATMs and debit Bitcoin cards is increasing.

1.2Market trends

The weekly cryptocurrency and digital asset market trends from July 2, 2017, to October 15, 2017, are presented in the figures below (Fig. 1.1-1.5)*.

Table 1.5. Legends and descriptions of the figures

Global Figures Figure** Description
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization, USD million Fig. 1.1 This figure shows cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization trends from July 2, 2017.
The rate of market change (as a % compared to the beginning of the year) Fig. 1.1 This figure shows the % change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization compared to January 1, 2017.
Change in the market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period) Fig. 1.2 This figure shows the weekly change in USD million (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from July 2, 2017.
The rate of market change (as a % compared to the previous period) Fig. 1.2 This figure shows the % of weekly change (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from July 2, 2017.
Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets Fig.1.3 This figure shows the trends in the increase of the number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets circulating on cryptocurrency exchanges. On January 1, 2017, their number was 617, and as of October 15, 2017, this number had already reached 1,097.
Average market capitalization, USD million Fig. 1.3 This figure reflects the growth in the average cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from July 2, 2017, i.e. the ratio between the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets and their number.
Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization Fig. 1.4, 1.5 This figure shows the time trend (forecast) change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization.

* Data as of October 16, 2017, 00:00 UTC

** The figures below present average data for 24 hours

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

Figure 1.1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization**

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-1-1

** Average daily data

Figure 1.1 shows a graph of the weekly cryptocurrency market change from July 2, 2017, to October 15, 2017. Over this period, the market capitalization grew from $94,716 million to $174,167 million, a growth of 884% relative to the start of the year. Over the past week the total market capitalization increased from $150,118 million to $174,167 million (as of October 15, 2017).

Figure 1.2. Change in market capitalization

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-1-2

Despite the significant growth in cryptocurrency market capitalization in Q3 2017 and over the entire year to date, the market is susceptible to sudden and drastic fluctuations. Significant drops occurred over the first two weeks of September (September 3-10 and September 11-17, 2017), when the market lost $25,203 million (-15.1%) and $20,817 million (-15%), respectively, and over the week of July 9-16, 2017 (-28%). The highest growth rate in Q3 was 39% (the week of July 16-23, 2017). Over the past week (October 9-15, 2017), the total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by $24,049 million or 16%.

Figure 1.3. Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-1-3

The total number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets listed on exchanges during the third quarter grew from 881 to 1,102. Their number decreased by five over the past week, to 1,097. At the same time, the average cryptocurrency and digital asset capitalization increased from $136.2 to $158.8 million over the analyzed period.

Figures 1.4 and 1.5. Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-1-4

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-1-5

In the first week of October (October 2-8, 2017), the market stabilized after the fairly sharp fluctuations (drops) in September, with gradual growth in its capitalization being seen. The second week of October (October 9-15, 2017) brought market growth of 16%. Many experts predict a significant increase in the exchange rates of the main cryptocurrencies by the end of the year. For example, entrepreneur and blockchain enthusiast Trace Mayer believes that the appreciation of the Bitcoin rate to $27,000 is possible. An important factor which will determine the development of the cryptocurrency market in Q4 2017 and over the next year will be the actions of the governments of various countries to regulate the market. According to business consultant and member of the Board of Directors of the blockchain startup CopPay, Ichak Adizes, within five years cryptocurrencies will become legitimate global currencies. Christine Lagarde, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, also believes that the future lies with cryptocurrencies.

We believe that cryptocurrency exchange rates will continue to grow, and the Bitcoin exchange rate, in particular, will exceed $10,000 by the end of the current year. However, the risk of market fluctuations will remain.

  1. General analysis of the ICO market (by week, month).

2.1 Brief overview of the cryptocurrency market, news of the week

  • Slovenia’s Financial Watchdog Warns of Cryptocurrency, ICO ‘Risks’ [source: Сryptocoinsnews]
  • Abu Dhabi Issues Cryptocurrency and ICO Regulations [source: Сryptocoinsnews]
  • Russia Will Block Bitcoin Exchange Websites, Says Central Bank Official [source: Сryptocoinsnews]
  • Challenging China: Taiwan Supports Mainstream Adoption of ICOs and Bitcoin [source: Сointelegraph]
  • Ethereum Developers Find Geth Bug as Hard Fork Nears [source: Сoindesk]
  • No Token Response: UNICEF Is Open to Doing Its Own ICO [source: Сoindesk]
  • Nasdaq CEO: Exchange Is Staying Away from ICOs [source: Сoindesk]

2.2. Aggregated trends and performance indicators of past (completed) ICOs

A new set of tools is proposed to assess the trends and performance of successfully completed and/or listed ICOs (see Table 2.1).

Table 2.1. New tools to access the performance of successfully completed and/or listed ICOs

Indicator Description
Average collected funds (ACF) Average amount of funds collected per ICO project over the period (month, quarter, year).
Average token performance (ATP)

 

Average performance of funds spent on buying tokens or average ratio between the current token price and token sale price over the period (month, quarter, year), i.e. the average reward per $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale, if they are traded on exchanges for USD.
Weighted average current reward on ICO funds (WACRF) Average weighted current performance of funds spent on buying tokens over the period (month, quarter, year). This indicator is similar to the previous indicator Average Token Performance (ATP), but is calculated taking into consideration the weight of the indicator. The parameter “average collected funds” (ACF) is used as a weight.
Weighted average monthly reward on ICO funds (WAMRF) Average weighted monthly performance of funds spent on buying tokens over the period (month, quarter, year). This indicator is similar to the previous indicator, Weighted Average Current Reward on ICO Funds (WACRF), but is calculated based on recalculated average monthly performance.

 

Table 2.2. Aggregated trends and performance indicators of past (completed) ICOs4

Indicator September, 2017 October 1-8, 2017

October 9-15,  2017

Total amount of funds collected,

USD million

730.3 105.7 104.9
Number of companies that completed an ICO1 45 10 8
Maximum collected, USD million (ICO name) 257 (Filecoin) 26.5 (Power Ledger) 32.7 (Airswap)
Average collected funds, USD million 16.2 10.6 13.1
Max token reward (ICO name) 5.00x (Chainlink) n/a n/a
Average token reward (ATR)2 2.32x n/a n/a
Weighted average current reward on funds (WACRF)3 2.71x n/a n/a

Notes:

1 Data source: tokendata.io, coinschedule.com. Only popular and/or successfully completed ICOs (i.e. ICOs which managed to collect the minimum set amount of funds) and/or ICOs listed on exchanges were considered. For some ICOs information may be incomplete (for instance, the amount of funds collected).

2 The average token reward for ICO projects was calculated as of October 8, 2017. Consequently, the efficiency of contributions or the ratio between the current token price and the token sale price, i.e. the average reward per USD 1 spent on tokens during its token sale, if they are subsequently listed for USD on a cryptocurrency exchange, is $2.32 for projects completed in September 2017. To calculate this ratio, the authors used the data from 45 ICOs completed between September 1 and October 1, 2017. The maximum token reward for the period under review was 5x for the Chainlink ICO (based on the assessment made on October 8, 2017).

3 Weighted average current reward on funds (WACRF) is an indicator similar to Average token reward (ATR), but takes into consideration the amount of funds collected through an ICO (see the Glossary).

4 The data for many ICOs completed after September 1, 2017, is incomplete or non-existent.

The data for the first eight days of October (October 1-8, 2017) were adjusted to account for the appearance of more complete information on completed ICOs. The total amount of funds collected was $105.7 million. The amount collected through ICOs last week (October 9-15, 2017) was nearly the same, and equaled $104.9 million. This total included the results of the eight most successful completed ICOs, among which the highest collected amount was around $32.7 million (Airswap). The average amount of funds collected per project was $13.1 million, which is somewhat less than the same indicator for September as a whole. Please see Table 2.5 for further details on the eight main ICOs over the past week.

2.3. Aggregated indicators to assess the market of active and planned ICOs

Table 2.3. Aggregated indicators to assess the market of active and planned ICOs

Indicator Value 
The number of projects conducting an active ICO as of the current date (October 15, 2017) 159
The number of projects planning an ICO as of the current date (October 15, 2017) 112
The number of projects planning an ICO between October 16-22, 2017 9

Data source: tokendata.io, coinschedule.com, coingecko.com and icoalert.com

The number of projects conducting active ICOs as of the current date (October 15, 2017) is 159. At present, there is information available on at least 112 planned ICOs to be conducted after October 15, 2017, including 9 ICOs which will start next week.

2.4. Quantitative analysis of the ICO market

    1. Amount of funds collected and number of ICOs

Table 2.4. Amount of funds collected and number of ICOs

Month Collected, $ million Number of ICOs* Average collected, $ million
January 4.5 3 1.5
February 9.7 5 1.94
March 4.7 3 1.57
April 127.8 17 7.52
May 168.4 16 10.53
June 995.2 30 33.17
July 461.3 29 15.91
August 330.0 35 9.43
September 730.3 45 16.23
October 1-8, 2017 105.7 10 10.6
October 9-15, 2017 104.9 8 13.1

* Information on funds collected is not available for all ICOs (information for last week is tentative and may be adjusted).

Table 2.4 shows that the greatest amount of funds was collected via ICOs in June 2017. In that month, the average collected funds per ICO was $33.17 million.

The data for the past week (October 9-15, 2017) may be adjusted as information on the amounts of funds collected via ICOs is finalized.

Figure 2.1. Trends in the amount of funds collected and number of ICOs since the start of the year

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-2-1

  1. Top ICOs

Table 2.5. Top 8 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (October 9-15, 2017)

# Name of ICO*** Category** Collected, $ million Date
1 Airswap Trading & Investing* 32.7 October 11, 2017
2 DomRaider Payments 31 October 11, 2017
3 LAToken Finance 19.6 October 10, 2017
4 doc.ai Drugs & Healthcare 10.0 October 12, 2017
5 Ties.Network Social Network 6.8 October 12, 2017
6 bitJob Social Network 2.8 October 13, 2017
7 Anryze Infrastructure* 1.8 October 12, 2017
8 Eventchain Events & Entertainment* 0.2 October 14, 2017
Average collected funds, $ 13.1
Total collected funds 104.9

* The category was established based on expert opinions.

** When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources was used. The ICO project categories were taken from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.

*** Only popular and/or successfully completed ICOs (i.e. ICOs which managed to collect the minimum set amount of funds) and/or ICOs listed on exchanges were considered. Information may be incomplete for some ICOs (for instance, the amount of funds collected).

Table 2.5 shows the top 8 ICOs which were successfully completed last week and collected the greatest amounts of funds. In the lead was the Airswap project, which is focused on the creation of a decentralized exchange. The idea behind the project is to directly unite sellers and buyers through smart contracts on the Ethereum blockchain, giving them the maximum possible protection from swindlers and cyberattacks.

Figure 2.2. Top ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (October 9-15, 2017)

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-2-2

 

  1. Top ICOs in their categories

The list of top ICOs for the week includes the following categories of ICO projects.

Table 2.6. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Trading & Investing category

Name of ICO Category** Collected, $ million Date Token performance
1 Enigma Catalyst Trading & Investing 45 September 11, 2017 1.06x
2 Stox Trading & Investing 33.3 August 4, 2017 0.49x
3 Airswap Trading & Investing* 32.7 October 11, 2017 n/a
4 Blackmooncrypto Trading & Investing 30 September 13, 2017 0.83x
5 0x Trading & Investing 24 August 16, 2017 4.07x
6 Finshi Capital Trading & Investing* 21.4 October 6, 2017 n/a
7 CoinDash Trading & Investing 20 August 17, 2017 n/a
8 openANX Trading & Investing 18.8 July 4, 2017 0.56x
9 Binance Trading & Investing 15 July 3, 2017 n/a
10 Veritaseum Trading & Investing 14 May 26, 2017 14.03x

* The category was established based on expert opinions.

** When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources was used. The ICO project categories were taken from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.

Table 2.6 lists the top 10 ICOs in the Trading & Investing category. All of these projects were performed in 2017. The exchange listing of the Veritaseum ICO can be considered one of the most successful projects. During the Veritaseum ICO project tokens were being sold for $5.644, now their current sale price on the crypto exchange is $79.163, i.e. token performance equals 14.03x. The market capitalization of Veritaseum tokens as of October 16, 2017, had increased to $159,132,654.

Figure 2.3. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Trading & Investing category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-2-3

Second and third place in last week’s rating belong to projects from the categories: Payments (the DomRaider ICO, with $31 million collected) and Finance (the LAToken ICO, with $19.6 million collected).

The ratings of the ICO projects in these categories are given below.

Table 2.7. Top 9 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Payments category

Name of ICO Category Collected, $ million Date Token performance
1 TenX Payments 64.0 June 24, 2017 2.25x
2 Monetha Payments 36.6 August 31, 2017 0.55x
3 DomRaider Payments 31.0 October 11, 2017 n/a
4 Monaco Payments 26.6 June 18, 2017 2.51x
5 OmiseGo Payments 25.0 July 5, 2017 23.89x
6 Centra Tech Payments 18.5 August 25, 2017 1.14x
7 TokenCard Payments 12.7 May 2, 2017 1.96x
8 Plutus Payments 1.0 June 30, 2016 7.52x
9 BlockPay pre-ICO Payments 0.7 September 15, 2016 n/a

At present, the Token Performance indicator for all top 9 projects in the Payments category ranges between 0.55x and 23.89x. The exchange listing of the OmiseGo ICO can be considered one of the most successful projects, as this project has a ratio of Current Token Price to Token Sale Price of 23.89x. When considering this indicator, it is important to remember that the OmiseGo ICO ended on July 5, 2017, i.e. the token performance grew 23.89 times over the course of approximately three months.

Figure 2.4. Top 9 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Payments category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-2-4

Table 2.8. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Finance category

Name of ICO Category Collected, $ million Date Token performance
1 KyberNetwork Finance 48.0 September 15, 2017 3.20x
2 PeerBanks Finance 42.6 September 22, 2017 n/a
3 Polybius Finance 31.7 July 5, 2017 0.47x
4 Bankera Pre-ICO Finance 29.6 September 19, 2017 n/a
5 Everex Finance 26.5 August 31, 2017 n/a
6 LAToken Finance 19.6 October 10, 2017 n/a
7 CoFound.it Finance 14.8 June 6, 2017 0.73x
8 BitcoinGrowthFund Finance 14.5 May 17, 2017 n/a
9 ICOBox Finance 13.7 September 15, 2017 n/a
10 Populous Finance 10.2 June 29, 2017 10.89x

* The category was established based on expert opinions.

** When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources was used. The ICO project categories were taken from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.

Table 2.8 shows the top 10 ICOs in the Finance category. The exchange listing of the Populous ICO can be considered one of the most successful projects, as this project has a ratio of Current Token Price to Token Sale Price of 10.89x.

Figure 2.5. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Finance category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-2-5

 

Table 2.9. Top 3 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Drugs & Healthcare category

Name of ICO Category Collected, $ million Date Token performance
1 doc.ai Drugs & Healthcare 10 October 12, 2017 n/a
2 Patientory Drugs & Healthcare 7.2 June 3, 2017 2.85x
3 Encrypgen Drugs & Healthcare 1.1 July 18, 2017 n/a

* The category was established based on expert opinions.

** When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources was used. The ICO project categories were taken from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.

Table 2.9 shows the top 3 ICOs in the Drugs & Healthcare category. Only the tokens of Patientory are currently being traded on the exchange. The doc.ai ICO, which was completed last week, became the largest in terms of the amount of funds collected ($10 million).

Figure 2.6. Top 3 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Drugs & Healthcare category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-2-6

 

Table 2.10. Top 6 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Social Network category

Name of ICO Category Collected, $ million Date Token performance
1 Kin Social Network 98.5 September 26, 2017 0.65x
2 Ties.Network Social Network 6.8 October 12, 2017 n/a
3 Nexus Social Network 6.5 September 15, 2017 n/a
4 Matchpool Social Network 5.6 April 4, 2017 1.80x
5 bitJob Social Network 2.8 October 13, 2017 n/a
6 Golos Social Network 0.5 December 3, 2016 5.45x

* The category was established based on expert opinions.

** When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources was used. The ICO project categories were taken from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.

Table 2.10 shows the top 6 ICOs in the Social Network category. The exchange listing of the Golos ICO can be considered one of the most successful projects in this category, as this project has a ratio of Current Token Price to Token Sale Price of 5.45x.

Figure 2.7. Top 6 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Social Network category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-9-15-2017-figure-2-7

 

Eight ICO projects were successfully completed over the past week (October 9-15, 2017), each of which collected more than $100,000, with a total amount of funds collected of at least $104.9 million. The week’s leader was the Airswap project ($32.7 million). The total amount of funds collected by the other seven ICOs failed to reach even the $100,000 mark (the information for some projects is still being finalized). Overall, project organizers collected the same amount of funds last week as they did in the first week of October. At least another 9 ICOs are planned to take place next week.

The Glossary is given in Annex 1.

Annex 1 – Glossary

Key terms Definition
Initial coin offering, ICO A form of collective support of innovative technological projects, a type of presale and attracting of new backers through initial coin offerings to future holders in the form of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies (tokens) and digital assets.
Market capitalization Value of an asset calculated based on its current market (exchange) price. This economic indicator is used to assess the total aggregate value of market instruments, players, and markets. [Source: https://en.wikipedia.org].
Cryptocurrency market capitalization Aggregate market value of cryptocurrencies circulating on the market.
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization Cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization, i.e. the aggregate market value of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets circulating on the market.
Token reward Token performance (current token price / token price during the ICO), i.e. the reward per $1 spent on buying tokens.
Dominance Market share, i.e. the ratio of market capitalization of a particular cryptocurrency (token) to total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Expressed as a %.
Token sale price

Current token price

Token sale price during the ICO.

Current token price.

Not Mineable

 

A token is not mineable – the term is used for cryptocurrencies (tokens) which cannot be mined or issued through mining.
Pre-mined A pre-mined coin. The term is used for cryptocurrencies (tokens) which are issued through mining, and a certain number of coins (tokens) have been created and distributed among certain users at the start of the project.
The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the beginning of the year) The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase compared to the start of the year.
The growth rate of the market (as a % compared to the beginning of the year) The market growth (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the start of the year.
Increase in market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period) Increase in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many USD million did market capitalization increase over the period.
The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period) Rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase over the period.
The market growth rate (in % compared to previous period) Market growth rate (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the previous period.
Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets: at the time when this glossary was compiled over 1,070 cryptocurrencies and digital assets were circulating on the market.
Average market capitalization Average market capitalization, i.e. the ratio of the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets to their number.
Token reward Performance of funds spent on buying tokens or the ratio of the current token price to the token sale price, i.e. efficiency of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale, if listed on an exchange for USD.
ETH reward – current dollar value of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale Alternative performance indicator of funds spent on buying tokens during the ICO or the ratio of the current ETH rate to its rate at the start of the token sale, i.e. if instead of buying tokens $1 was spent on buying ETH at its rate at the start of the token sale and sold at the current ETH rate.
BTC reward– current dollar value of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale Similar to the above: Alternative performance indicator of funds spent on buying tokens during the token sale, i.e. if instead of buying tokens $1 was spent on buying BTC at its rate at the start of the token sale and sold at the current BTC rate.
Token/ETH reward This ratio describes the backer’s economic benefits and disadvantages resulting from buying tokens during the token sale relative to buying ETH. If the result is over 1, the backer spent his funds more efficiently on buying tokens than if he were to spend his funds on ETH.
Token/BTC reward This ratio describes the backer’s economic benefits and disadvantages resulting from buying tokens during the token sale relative to buying BTC. If the result is over 1, the backer spent his funds more efficiently on buying tokens than if he were to spend his funds on BTC.
ZAK-n Crypto index The index is calculated in percentages and represents a ratio between the 24-hour trade volume (transactions) on cryptocurrency exchanges per day (Volume 24h) for n dominant cryptocurrencies to their total market capitalization.

ZAK-3 Crypto index calculations include three dominant cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple, which at the start of 2017 had the greatest market capitalization.

ZAK-5 Crypto index calculations include the trade volume and market capitalization for five cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The index for these five cryptocurrencies with the greatest current market capitalization (as of September 2017) is calculated for the period from August 2017, since Bitcoin Cash only entered the cryptocurrency exchanges in August 2017 as a result of the Bitcoin hard fork.

 


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